一周随机漫步(2018.2.11)

今年过年前,是我参加工作以来最忙碌的一个年前,以往无论是在哪家公司,年前这种时候,都已经开始有条不紊的为今年的工作做收尾工作了。很不喜欢这种工作氛围,每天被各种琐事堆满,以至于完全没有时间停下来去想一些更高层次以及更大格局的东西。而越是进入了这种循环,则越不容易跳出来。不过,对于公司的某些人来说,可能会挺喜欢这种氛围的,毕竟能显得自己很有价值嘛。然而在我看来,忙碌的工作,甚至是需要加班的忙碌,只能证明要么是员工个人能力问题,要么就是公司机制问题,前者适用于个别员工加班的情况,而后者则适用于全体加班(尤其是信奉997的那些公司)的情况。

这周另一个比较热的话题是,无论是东方还是西方的股市都大跌。不过,在我看来,二者虽然表象一样,但本质还是相去甚远的,美股虽然下跌了(跌的我今年到目前为止的利润都没了),但从长远看,依然是可以长线持有的市场,但中国的股市大跌,则是履行了其自身最大的功能——政府的提款机。所以,中国的股市,短线是可以做的,只要揣摩好圣上的心思,利润也还是可以的,但是你要说中国的股市可以用长线思维去操作,那我只能祝你好运了;美国的股市则是相反,短线是绝对不能碰的,因为有各种成熟的机构做你的对手,除非你花费巨大的时间精力在这上面,否认胜算真的不大,即使是有胜算,如果资本不够的话,投入产出比也是相当低的,但鉴于美股市场上,公司都要向华尔街交成绩单的这一规则,美股是一个非常适合做长线的市场。

这周还听到一个新闻,说三里屯开了家故宫快闪店,相当火,联想到之前阿里的盒马等一系列新零售形态的出现,实体经济也终于开始复苏了,O2O也不再是和我们的生活相去甚远的一个概念(但区块链目前仍待发展),然而,现在看到更多的,还是互联网在拥抱实体,而非实体拥抱互联网。虽然国家目前侧重发展实体经济,互联网公司抓住这波机遇是对的,但就我而言,则是更希望能看到原来的实体经济更加主动的去拥抱互联网的,

与实体经济相比,金融行业,尤其是互联网金融,在未来的几年内日子都不会太好过。真的是应了那句话——出来混迟早是要还的,之前杠杆加的太猛,以至于现在不得不紧急刹车了,虽然这次的紧急刹车,也是分阶段的,而目前只是第一阶段而已,我相信在2020年之前,会进入第二阶段,可能还会有第三阶段的刹车。突然想起巴菲特对于衍生品的厌恶和反对,其实大师的很多理念,细细体味,无一不是没有道理的。

春节假期将至,路上已经能看到越来越多的人拉着箱子了,除了亲切会见各路亲戚好友同学外,我更加建议大家多留点时间给自己,做做自省,或者回归内在的平静,抑或是想想来年的宏伟计划如何一步步去实现,真的比无效交际好太多。

最后说一下本周更新的电影电视吧,正好可以在春节假期都扫完。《相棒》(相棒)第16季第15集、《Unnatural》(アンナチュラル)第4集、《99.9-刑事专业律师》(99.9-刑事専門弁護士)第2季第4集以及《BG~贴身保镖~》(BG~身辺警護人~)第4集都是本周常规更新,除了《相棒》外,其他几部都已经快到半场时间了,所以味道也不算太淡。另外《电影少女2018》(Video Girl Ai 2018)已经更新到了第4集,和漫画整体进度相比还是有点慢的,不过情节是有微调的,我估计反派在后期将会以另一种方式出场,《3月的狮子》(3月のライオン)的36-38集也值得观看,桐山和宗谷终于交手,对于期间内心的感受和变化描写的也是比较细腻的,《龙珠超》(ドラゴンボール超)的123-126集对于龙珠迷们来说也不容错过,界王大会终于接近了尾声,在第七宇宙的大家共同努力下,对手终于只剩下吉连一人,然而时间也只剩下4分钟,期待悟空和贝吉塔可以各自实现自我突破,感觉后期二人的升级路径应该会有变化。

另外,虽然papi酱在各种场合力推《妖灵灵》,然而在我用了十来分钟扫完了这部九十分钟的电影后,并不觉得值得我们浪费生命,日本的那部《忍者之国》也是同样的情况,剧情真的是一塌糊涂,作为一部战国时代背景的电影,却和历史完全不一样。另外最近看的一本《吃动物》的书,也忘了当初是在哪里看到的推荐,要让我想起来的话,肯定是要取关那个公众号的。

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